Category:Wine trends

TV wine ads: Deciphering the Menage a Trois holiday ad

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

Is the Menage a Trois ad really clever or sort of soft core porn?

The blog has been parsing TV wine ads for more than five years, but I’ve never come across anything like this Menage a Trois ad, released for the holidays last year. Is it so well done that I don’t understand it at all, or is it just a soft core porn variation of the usual silliness?

Because it does seem to do what it should do to sell this line of supermarket wines, which are simple, sort of sweet, and play off the double entendre in the brand’s name. The dancing figures on the front label are intriguing but not completely tasteless, and the corny soundtrack isn’t completely corny.

On the other hand, I can’t shake the feeling that the ad is an agency wise guy’s snicker and giggle, a wink and a nod at something like “Fifty Shades of Grey.” Because what does the ad have to do with the wine, other than to tart it up? Are sales actually going to increase because of it? Will consumers actually like it more or remember it the next time they’re standing in from of the supermarket Great Wall of wine?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Still, it’s probably a step up from most of the TV wine ads surveyed over the years, and I know it didn’t make my brain hurt the the way the Roo did. Which is something, I suppose.

More about TV wine ads:
• TV wine ads: Does Stella Rosa’s sweet fizzy red commercial do what Big Wine can’t?
• TV wine ads: Mateus rose — “it’s like a trip to Portugal”
• Wine business: Watch this beer spot to see how TV wine ads should be done

Video courtesy of Menage a Trois Wines via YouTube

Big Wine 2021

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

big wine 2021Big Wine 2021 growth may have slowed, but the biggest companies still control U.S. wine production

A funny thing happened to Big Wine during the pandemic. It probably didn’t get that much bigger.

That’s one of the most interesting parts in Wine Business Monthly’s 17th annual wine industry survey, which tracks the ups and downs of the U.S. wine business and ranks the 50 biggest producers in this country. In the 2020 report, the top 50 produces of accounted for 90 percent of domestic wine sales, as they have done for years. But the 2021 number is about the same – despite early indications that that the percentage could be higher.

And it could be. Cyril Penn, the magazine’s editor, says the pandemic made it more difficult to gather data, both from producers and from trade groups that track wine sales.

But Big Wine remains dominant, even though there are some 11,000 wineries in the U.S.:

• E&J Gallo is still the behemoth of world wine production, accounting for 88 million cases last year. That’s more than the second and third biggest companies combined. In other words, at least one out of every four bottles of wine sold in the U.S. is a Gallo product (such as Barefoot, Apothic, and Louis Martini), and it could be as many as one out of three.

• The top three producers – Gallo, The Wine Group (Franzia boxes, Cupcake), and Constellation Brands (Mondavi) – totaled 158 million cases, about half of U.S. production. The top 10 accounted for about three-quarters, which is more or less the same as 2020.

• The biggest growth, save for Gallo, likely came in the middle tiers — 15 to 30 or so. A variety of producers in that range have been snapping up smaller companies over the past several years, furthering consolidation in the 1 million case range.

• Box wine soared during the pandemic, led by Bota Box – up almost 50 percent in 2020.

• National brands excelled, since consumers focused on supermarket labels during the panddemic. Josh Cellars’ sales increased 43 percent and Barefoot was up 18 percent. The latter is especially telling, since Barefoot growth has slowed in recent years. And, allowing for the statistical caveat mentioned above, Barefoot could account for as much as five percent of the sales of domestic wine — all by itself.

More about Big Wine:
• Big Wine 2020
• Big Wine 2019
• Big Wine 2018

“Curated” wine clubs, and why they don’t seem to be the answer

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

curated wine clubs
Do you have any curated chardonnay that is rich and opulent in texture?

“Curated” wine clubs are supposed to use science or experts to find wine you like. But they keep recommending oaky California chardonnay to the Wine Curmudgeon

Know two things about a host of “curated” wine clubs making the rounds these days, companies like Sippd, Bright Cellars, and SommSelect. First, they’re supposed to use science or an expert to take the confusion out of buying wine. Or, as Sippd claims, “Sippd uses AI to provide you highly personalized wine recommendations.” Second, they really don’t work, and certainly not any better than asking the woman at your local wine shop what’s on sale that you might like.

I pointed and clicked through a variety of those websites last week and used three for this post (a tip o’ the WC’s fedora to regular blog visitor Wiseguy for setting me off on this adventure). The results were past discouraging.

I found pricing to be mysterious. Bright Cellars offers “$20” wines discounted to $15. In fact, a quick check on wine-searcher showed that many Bright Cellar wines seemed to be labels developed for Bright Cellars, so no telling what the true price is since you can’t buy them elsewhere. Meanwhile, SommSelect charged $68 for a bottle of French sauvignon blanc that cost $52 on much of the East Coast.

In this, the SommSelect wines were almost all high-end and not aimed at ordinary wine drinkers, even though many reviews for the site say otherwise. How about “A wine club may, on average, cost a little bit more than pulling your ten-buck bottle of wine off the shelf in the store. But, by signing up for a wine club, you aren’t simply buying one or more bottles of wine, you’re buying years of experience from sommeliers. …”

This was depressing in and of itself; how much longer will the wine business perpetuate the myth that only sommeliers are worthy of finding wine worth drinking?

Even more depressing. …

The science, algorithms, and artificial intelligence on Sippd and Bright Cellars were about as effective as letting Churro, the blog’s associate editor, pick wine the way he picks his chew toys. The algorithm sites ask a series of questions about wines and flavors that you like, and then the algorithm magically and mysteriously finds similar wines. Not surprisingly, they don’t ask about price.

Sigh.

Sippd, which sells its wines through Wine.com, gave me an 83 percent “taste match” for E&J Gallo’s La Marca Prosecco, which is pretty funny since I don’t really like Prosecco. And it offered a 92 percent “taste match” for a $129 red Bordeaux, which is even funnier since I’ve never bought a $129 bottle in my life.

And Bright Cellars recommended five wines, all from the U.S. when I buy mostly imports. Even worse, they included two California chardonnays (“Rich and opulent in texture. … rich and creamy. …”) and a couple of reds that claimed to contain some kind of chocolate something or other. Regular visitors here know that those are the kinds of focus group wines I regularly rant about.

Maybe you’ll have better luck with these sites than I did. I hope so. No one should be as miserable as I was after I finished — once again worrying about the future of the wine business.

Photo: “_MG_5551 2” by Yahoo Inc is licensed under CC BY 2.0

More about wine clubs:
• Wine Insiders wine club, and why more people don’t drink wine
• Update: Third-party wine clubs and their experts
• Blue Apron wine: Disappointing and depressing

The Bad Spaniels dog toy and wine criticism

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

A court ruling in favor of the Bad Spaniels dog toy means honest wine criticism has survived another day

What does a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the Bad Spaniels dog toy have to do with wine criticism? Plenty, which speaks to the dangerous ledge that wine criticism lives on these days.

Earlier this month, the court declined to hear an appeal from Jack Daniels whiskey against a parody dog toy called Bad Spaniels, which looks like the Daniels bottle. The whiskey company had sued the toy company, claiming it had infringed on Jack Daniels’ intellectual property and had hurt the company’s brand. Its suit had had been filed despite long-entrenched and well-established First Amendment protection for parody and satire.

But, as noted on the Libation Law blog, that doesn’t matter to Big Spirits, Big Wine, and Big Beer these days. Stomp on the First Amendment? Why not? We’ve got money to make. There’s a quote on the Internet from an intellectual property attorney which makes it sound as if this toy will cause as much destruction to the republic as armed protesters storming the U.S. Capitol. And, of course, I’m not linking to his quote – if these people sue companies, you can imagine how they would view me.

The Supreme Court’s decision means a lower court ruling will stand in favor of the dog toy. That reiterates the right of the dog toy company to parody Jack Daniels, something that has been part of First Amendment law for at least 70 years. In this, it’s the second important First Amendment decision to bolster wine criticism in the last year, reinforcing the rights of those of us who take the subject seriously and see it as more than scores, tasting notes.and schmoozing the wine industry.

More protection

The first came in August, when a federal district court ruled that wine bloggers likely have the same protections as traditional media. That meant that a producer, unhappy with one of my reviews, probably wouldn’t win if they sued me for libel or defamation. The Bad Spaniels decision, though not exactly the same, means that I’m protected if I write a post parodying the Wine Spectator or the California wine industry. Without the Bad Daniels ruling, either could have sued me, saying that my post diluted the value of their product and that I was liable for damages to make up for the dilution.

Gulp.

That would send me scurrying to scores and tasting notes, yes?

The other question no one has answered: When did we get to the point where a dog chew toy making fun of a whiskey company would become the subject of a constitutionally significant lawsuit? What possible fear could Jack Daniels have – or anyone else in Big Beer, Big Wine, or Big Spirits – that a toy would hurt their business?

Churro, the blog’s associate editor, contributed to this post — and he really likes the toy.

Wine trends 2021

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

wine trends 2021
Will I be able to buy wine over the Internet after 2021 — but not in January, of course?

Look for Dry January, “healthy” wine, the pandemic, and legal maneuvers to mark wine trends 2021

This is the second of two parts looking at wine prices and wine trends in 2021. Today, Part II: Wine trends 2021. Part I: Wine prices 2021.

Anyone in the wine business who says Dry January doesn’t matter must also believe the Trump wine tariff is good for business, young people are flocking to buy $100 wine, and I think scores are the future of wine criticism.

But there it is, as we look at wine trends 2021: Any number of experts who say Dry January and the neo-Prohibitionists don’t matter. Or, as one magazine editor asked me, “What’s Dry January? Why is that in your story?”

I should have pointed him to this story. Or this one. Or this one.

In fact, I spent much of the past couple of years writing trade magazine stories about the growth in no-alcohol, low-alcohol, and “healthy” wines. And I wasn’t talking to one-off startups, but executives at some of the biggest wine companies in the world. So any discussion of wine trends 2021 must start with Dry January and that it’s OK to say you don’t drink – cool, even.

What we don’t know is exactly how Dry January will change the wine world. But it will change wine in 2021, as will these:

• “Healthy” wine. If you haven’t heard of FitVine yet, you will. It markets itself as “less sugar, fewer sulfites, and no flavor additives for a cleaner wine” – all for $15. And it’s not alone. There are products like The Wine Group’s Cupcake Light Hearted; Trinchero’s Mind & Body; and Constellation’s Kim Crawford Illuminate, which promise fewer calories, less sugar, less alcohol, and say they are gluten free and vegan. The idea is to sell wine to younger consumers who supposedly prefer a healthier lifestyle and who may not be drinking wine now. One estimate: this market will grow 34 percent over the next four years.

• Shortages and supply chain problems will continue. The longer the pandemic lasts, the more we’ll see retailers and wholesalers have a difficult time keeping popular wines on shelves. It doesn’t mean the wines will disappear; rather, they’ll be there, sell out, and not return for a week or more.

• Wine tourism on the brink. If the vaccines do their job, and if life returns to normal by the fall, then all should start to improve. But if we go through another year of travel and public place restrictions, then questions must emerge about the future of wine tourism. The 90 percent of U.S. wineries that don’t make 90 percent of the wine survive on wine tourism. How will they survive if there isn’t any?

• Three-tier reform, but slowly and incrementally. That’s because the Supreme Court won’t hear a key three-tier case, so no Internet wine sales anytime soon. Still, we will see alcohol delivery continue to expand, thanks to the pandemic. In Texas, the legislature is expected to make cocktails-to-go permanent this year, a development that is so unprecedented as to be almost indescribable. And Illinois is set to legalize retail booze delivery throughout the state, also difficult to believe.

• The Trump tariff, and how soon we can get rid of it. Change here requires compromise, good will, and good faith from the U.S. and the European Union. Sadly, all have been in short supply.

Wine prices 2021

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

wine prices 2021Wine prices 2021 will defy the law of supply and demand, and we’ll suffer with more overpriced, mass-market wines

This is the first of two parts looking at wine prices and wine trends in 2021. Today, Part I: Wine prices 2021. Monday, Part II: Wine trends 2021.

Anyone who says they know what wine prices 2021 will do is guessing, at best – the Wine Curmudgeon included. How else to explain a wine world which continues to deny the existence of the law of supply and demand?

That’s because we saw demand continue to decline in 2020, supply continue to increase, and prices refuse to follow along. In fact, some prices increased, and that had nothing to do with the tariff, but producers and importers trying to take advantage of the last gasps of premiumization.

Or is this premiumization’s last gasp? I’ve been writing about the end of premiumization for a couple of years (and I’m not the only one), but it’s still with us in all its irritation and aggravation. I’m beginning to think that the oligopoly structure of the post-modern wine business, with a handful of companies controlling production, wholesaling, and retailing means that prices will do what the oligopoly wants, and not what they should do. If the oligopoly wants premiumization, then we’re going to have premiumization, and that means more overpriced, mass-produced, flabby, and boring supermarket-style wines.

And it looks like the oligopoly does. How else do you explain paying $15 for Italian wine, which isn’t included in the tariff, that costs one-third that much in Italy? Or $15 and $20 California labels, where the bulk grapes used to make the wine may have cost as little as $1 per bottle? Or $20 Washington wines when the state is awash in bulk grapes? Or all those French roses that cost two and three times as much as something like this – even though the former have much the same grape cost?

So if I had to make one prediction for wine prices 2021, it’s not to expect any price relief. For one thing, the tariff isn’t going away any time soon. That not only raises the price of most French, Spanish, and German wines, but gives producers elsewhere an excuse to raise their prices. Ironically, I asked several experts about this possibility when the tariff took effect in 2019, and was told no producer would be stupid enough to raise prices to take advantage of the tariff. Once more, the experts were wrong, and the wine business demonstrated yet again why I worry about its future.

So not much good news here – save for the caveat that if I have been as wrong this time as I have been before, then we will have some good news. Just don’t count on it.

More about wine prices:
• Wine prices 2020
• Wine prices 2019
• Wine prices 2018

SVB wine report 2021

by Wine Curmudgeon Posted On

svb report
SVB report 2021: The wine business must find a way to reach under-40 consumers.

The good news in SVB wine report 2021: This year should be an improvement over 2020. But don’t get your hopes up for 2022

How about some good news in the SVB wine report 2021, Silicon Valley Bank’s annual state of the wine industry effort? It would be a welcome change from the gloom and doom of the past 10 months, as well as the past couple of years of SVB reports.

So rejoice.

“I think the news will be measured and good,” says Rob McMillan, the report’s author. We exchanged emails in the run-up to the report’s official release and webcast yesterday.

“I think we have a bounce ahead of us,” he says. “And going back to history, I remember having data that showed a massive growth in wine consumption in 1945, then a drop in 1946. I do expect a bounce in 2021 – maybe not like 1945. Call it a rolling celebration that will span 2021 and into 2022 as occasions and delayed celebrations come back.”

The report reinforced that good news – assuming the pandemic gets under control and the wine business doesn’t do anything stupid:

• Expect a bounce in demand if tourism and restaurants come back. The report sees an increase in wine sales gaining momentum in 2021, but it may not be sustainable next year.

• Wine demand this year did not increase, no matter what others are saying. Instead, says McMillan, what happened is what’s called a channel shift — we bought less wine at restaurants and more wine at supermarkets and on-line, but the overall total didn’t change. In this, restaurant wine sales have not recovered and may still be down as much as two-thirds over the same time last year.

• Premiumization is nearing its peak, but will continue this year thanks to that pent up demand and the industry’s efforts to reduce the wine supply. The 2020 California harvest may be the smallest in a decade.

• Retailers who understand on-line sales and e-commerce – even without more loosening of three-tier laws — “will have a strong 2021.” The report says on-line sales could represent 20 percent of an average winery’s sales within five years – an impressive figure, given those are in the mid-single digits now. And e-commerce sales during a three-month period in 2020 increased as much as the previous 10 years.

Not all was good news, of course. What else would we expect after 2020? Wine’s growth rate, even with premiumization, has declined across all price segments for years, and there is no reason to expect a long term change unless the wine business changes tactics in how it sells wine. In addition, as Baby Boomers continue to drink less wine, the industry must find a way to reach under-40 consumers. Which, as we know, it has failed miserably at.