Why it’s so hard to figure out what wine prices are doing

That’s because there are prices, and then there are prices

A friend had asked me about the price of a wine he liked, so I started searching. It was the Riva Ranch chardonnay from Wente, a fine California producer, and one my friend has bought for years. But what I found surprised even me:

• $16.99 at my Kroger, marked down from $23.99.

• $19.99 at Wine.com, marked down from $22.

• $15.76 at Spec’s, the biggest independent retailer in Texas.

• $19.99 at Monticello, a small retailer near my house.

• $14.99 at Total Wine, but $13.49 if bought as part of Total’s Pick Six program.

In other words, four different prices at five retailers, as well as two sale prices and one store discount price. And, if that’s not confusing enough, a nearby Whole Foods charges $15.99 for Wente’s entry-level chardonnay, a step down from the Riva Ranch.

Is it any wonder it’s so difficult to figure out what wine prices are doing?

Traditionally, prices were based on the retailer’s cost and how much margin he or she wanted to take, as well as local liquor taxes and what the competition charged. That’s why bigger retailers usually offered better prices. But that Wine.com charges the same price as Monticello speaks to how pricing has changed.

These days, it’s as much about the retailer’s customer mix as anything. Wine.com knows its audience doesn’t mind paying more, so it charges more. I’ve seen this with many of its wines; the La Vieille Ferme rose costs $10.99 at Wine.com, compared to $6 to $8 elsewhere in Dallas.

All of which leaves me in a bind when I undertake one of my regular price parsing efforts. Given all this confusion, how can I tell which way prices are going?

With great difficulty. Hence, I shop at lots and lots of places, including supermarkets, and keep a database of my purchases, as well as extensive notes about prices at places where I didn’t buy the wine. That way, I can tell how much I paid for the same wine at different times, as well as what it cost at other retailers. So yes, I know that Domaine Tariquet cost me $10 at Central Market, a specialty grocer, in 2016.

The other thing to keep in mind? How many past vintages are being sold. Again, traditionally, a retailer sold off one vintage and moved on to the next. But given wine’s demand problems, there are a lot of past vintages on shelves and in warehouses. Again, using Wine.com, six of the first 10 roses listed under most popular for Texas are past vintages (and three are marked down). And that’s most popular. So imagine how much wine is stacking up somewhere that isn’t popular that needs to be sold.

All of which is why I’m cautiously optimistic that wine prices will head lower as the year progresses. The biggest retailers seem to be heading that way, and those past vintages show little sign of going away.

But, given how pricing works, that’s no guarantee.

Photo: “PAS4679” by the underlord is licensed under CC BY 2.0