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Tag Archives: wine business

Wine trends in 2015

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wine trends in 2015Wine trends in 2015 will be similar to wine trends in 2014 — wine drinkers will see more wines they’ve never heard of and we’ll be able to buy those wines at more places than ever before, including and especially grocery stores. Along the way, Big Wine will continue to get bigger, and even wine writing could see significant changes, as those of us who don’t have money behind us will stop doing it.

More private labels. Retailers love private labels, like Trader Joe’s Two-buck Chuck or Costco’s Kirkland, because it gives them a product no one else has and because they make more money than with national brands. Case in point: The Total Wine chain sells many national brands at its cost, and makes its money on its Winery Direct private labels. We’ll see more private labels because retailers are desperate to boost margins at a time when they can’t, for whatever reason, raise prices. Nielsen reports (and I’m going to write more about this later this month) that private label wine sales were up 11 percent last year, compared to 3.5 percent for all wine.

More chains. There has never been a national wine retailer, which has made perfect sense given three-tier and that there are 50 booze laws for 50 states, including some that don’t allow chains. But these companies are expanding despite the legal obstacles. Total Wine expects to double its sales to $3 billion by 2019, opening 12 to 15 stores a year, and Canadian retailer Liquor Stores N.A. wants to add to stores and states to the 36 locations it has in Kentucky and Alaska. My guess? That the chains will slowly move into as many states as possible, changing the laws when necessary. Theu’ll offer better prices and force independents to get better, which is what happened in the pet business. Petco and PetSmart didn’t crush the independents when they opened 20 years ago; in fact, independents still account for about 90 percent of all pet stores, though only about one-third of sales.

More grocery stores selling wine. This will change the wine business as we know it, despite repeated failures to get grocery store sales in Pennsylvania and New York. Supermarkets want wine because it’s more expensive than most of what they sell, and it helps them offer one-stop shopping. Plus, they have the financial clout to change laws in states that forbid grocery store sales, most recently in Tennessee. Again, this will pressure independents, who won’t be able to compete on price and will have to redouble efforts to offer quality service.

Consolidation. Big Wine will continue to buy smaller companies and increase its market share, with deals like this. In this, it will solidify its hold on retailer shelves, making it more difficult for smaller wineries with limited distribution to be sold in all but the most progressive independents. I’d guess that as many as three-quarters of the wines in a typical grocery store come from the six biggest wine companies, and that percentage will only get bigger.

Internet wine writing shakeout. Last fall’s news that Vinous bought Stephen Tanzer’s International Wine Cellar is the biggest development in wine writing since the Internet. It means someone has figured out that the only way to make money with wine writing on the Internet is to target the five percent of Americans who buy wine that costs more than $20 and that the only way to target them is to get big to compete with the Wine Spectator and the Wine Advocate. That’s not good news for those of us who don’t target that audience and don’t have the deep pockets to get big. Think of it as the wine writing equivalent of what Big Wine is doing, and wonder how many independents who are on the Wine Web Power Index will be there in five years.

Wine prices in 2015

winetrends

wine prices 2015The 2014 grape harvest in most of the world is finished, which raise the next question: What does harvest mean for wine prices in 2015? The answer is surprisingly complicated, depending on which region the wine is from; how expensive it is — or isn’t; and whether we buy it from a big or small retailer. But if the answer is surprisingly complicated, it’s not unexpected.

That’s because the wine business continues to adjust to the changes it has seen over the past decade, and which were exacerbated during the recession. Most of the predictions you’ll see, now and into next year, don’t take into account these changes. Which is silly. The days when the wine business was made up a handful of important producers in each country who sold to mostly local retailers through small, family-owned distributors are gone and may never return.

More, after the jump:

The Wine Curmudgeon does the Grape Collective interview

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Wine Curmudgeon Grape CollectiveJameson Fink of the Grape Collective, an especially popular wine website, asked some terrific questions as part of their regular feature, called SpeakEasy. This gave me a chance to offer several insights into the wine business and wine writing. More than a few people may be annoyed at my answers, but that’s their problem. If we don’t stick up for ourselves as wine drinkers, who will?

The interview is here. A few highlights:

• “I talk to consumers all the time, and they’re scared to death of wine. They apologize for not knowing more or for drinking something that might offend me. In what other consumer good does that happen? Does someone apologize to their dinner guests for serving Maxwell House coffee?”

• Asked what wines offer the best value, I suggested Gascony, Sicily, rose, and cava. Not shocking to regular visitors here, of course, but I never pass up a chance to spread the good news. I have a feeling the Grape Collective’s demographic may not be exactly the same as mine.

• “Winespeak (and I got an email about this other day from a consumer complaining about exactly this) scares everyone else off. What can it possibly mean to someone in a grocery store that a $12 wine has notes of beeswax, other than to make them run in terror?”

My 10 favorite food- and wine- related places in Dallas, which doesn’t include most of the things other people would recommend. Which says a lot about Dallas, actually. And what does it say about me that two of my choices don’t have websites?

• Question: “What’s changed in the world of wine blogging since you started in 2007?” Answer: “Fewer quality blogs, more snarkiness and bitterness among those who did not become rich and famous because they thought they should, and less professionalism. … Wine writing is the best job in the world, and I don’t understand why so many of us, both online and in print, have such chips on our shoulders.”

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