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Wine trends in 2016

winetrends

winetrendsWine trends in 2016? Expect to see consolidation continue, producers continue to aim at the consumer smooth tooth, and retailers focus even more on private label. And, not surprising given all of this, more of us move away from wine in favor of craft beer:

Distributor and importer consolidation: Big Wine will get bigger in 2016, which won’t be anything nothing new. The real news will take place among distributors and importers, as the biggest among those two groups buy smaller companies. We’ve already seen some of this, and there will be more for two reasons. First, historically low borrowing costs, which will make it possible for the biggest companies to buy more smaller companies than usual and even to overpay. Second, the graying of the family distributors and importers who started their businesses in the 1980s and 1990s and who brought us so much interesting wine. If you run a family business and you’re nearing retirement, and someone throws a ridiculous amount of money at you, wouldn’t you sell, too?

Keeping it smooth: The number of red blends and pinot noirs, which have grown like crazy over the past couple of years, will keep growing. This includes (most importantly) sweet red wine, as well as any red blend tasting of massive amounts of fruit and without much in the way of tannins. It includes pinot nor, because pinot made for less than $20 is usually blended. It also includes Prosecco, which has jumped in sales the past couple of years and is increasingly being made to fit the smooth flavor profile even if that doesn’t necessarily taste like Prosecco.

Bring on the private labels. One of the most important statistics about wine was buried in a Nielsen marketing report last year — 4,200 new wines were introduced in 2014, about 12 1/2 percent of the market. Those weren’t necessarily wines from new producers or new wines from old producers, but wines made for specific retailers, whether grocers or chain wine stores and called private label wines. They can be sold for a little less than national brands, or even the same (right, Kroger?) but reap more profit. 

Flat wine sales. Since the recession ended, annual wine sales have hardly grown at all. As wine market analyst John Gillespie has written, that could be because we’re switching to craft beer, where sales have surpassed almost everyone’s expectations. The most telling number: The craft beer market is worth $24 billion, which is two-thirds of the entire U.S. wine market. And it’s not like craft beer has been around for very long.

Call me cranky, but the first three things on this list explain the fourth. If wine is becoming boring — the same kinds of wine made by the half-dozen producers who dominate the U.S. market, why wouldn’t we look for something else to drink? Throw in that these are increasingly ordinary products, which so much private label is but  are sold for higher prices, and wine’s sales slump seems obvious.

Private label wine: The future of the wine business?

winetrends

private label winePrivate label wine, always a small but important part of the wine business, is going to get much, much bigger. In this, wine drinkers will see more wines on store shelves they’ve never heard of and can only buy in one store — all of which is good for retailers, but not necessarily good for us.

More, after the jump:

Winebits 192: Private labels, wine critics, Decanter awards

What’s in a private label? We’ve had discussion here over the years about the difference between national brands and store brands and private labels. This article, from an Alabama newspaper, is a sound, easy-to-follow explanation of private label and who makes the wine for retailers like Walgreen’s, Wal-Mart, and Costco. And, notes wine columnist Pat Kettles, Dollar General is going to have to find someone to make the wine it wants to sell.

When critics collide: Eric Asimov in the New York Times has the story of two influential critics and their reaction to Chateau Pavie, a hip and with-it red Bordeaux blend that is usually well received. Robert Parker calls the 2010 Pavie brilliant, while John Gilman calls it, believe it not, bad and unpleasant. Which is, of course, one of the great things about wine, that two such reputable critics can completely disagree. The Wine Curmudgeon has actually tasted Pavie, and while it wasn’t the 2010, I can see where Gilman was coming from. Which means I can also see where Parker was coming from.

Love that cheap wine: Decanter, the British wine magazine, has released its annual wine awards. Many of the award winners will be difficult to find in the U.S. or too expensive or both, but one of them is a favorite around here — the French chardonnay, Cave de Lugny, which sells for abut $10 in the U.S. It was not only the least expensive among the top 10 chardonnays, but it shared the list with some high-dollar white Burgundies from Montrachet and Chabilis and an $80 Aussie label.

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